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A recent Wall Street Journal poll of American voters in swing states found that while people think the national economy is in bad shape, they feel good about their personal finances. In Gallup polling from last April, just 16% rated the economy as “good” or “excellent,” but 45% said their personal finances were “good” or “excellent.”But according to available data the economy has improved. But the dichotomy between how people feel about their own finances and the economy at large presents a different conundrum. It’s important to look at consumer behavior and not just sentiment when determining how Americans feel about the economy, said Harris. Those behaviors signal that Americans, overall, actually feel pretty good about their economy.
Persons: New York CNN — Nathan Frederiksen, , , ” Frederiksen, It’s, “ We’ve, I’ve, ” He’s, , Wisconsin —, Joe Biden, Ben Harris, else’s, ” Harris, Harris, Jonathon Barricklow, Barricklow, we’d, Dave Koloskee, he’ll, Megan McCoy, we’re, ” McCoy, Julie Levitch, Suze Orman, she’s, I’m, ’ ”, , they’re Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Gallup, Economic, Brookings, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Facebook, Kansas State University, , Finance, LinkedIn Locations: New York, Boise , Idaho, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina , Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, it’s, United States, Bowling Green , Ohio, East, Europe, Erie , Pennsylvania, Scottsdale , Arizona
Stocks rallied Friday after the latest jobs report came in piping hot. The Dow rose 307 points, or 0.8%, after climbing more than 400 points at the day's highs. Still, all three major indexes ended the week lower, starting the second quarter of the year on a sour note. While the latest jobs report supports the idea that the US economy is holding strong against interest rates at a 23-year high and could avoid a recession, it also puts into question when the Federal Reserve will begin its long-awaited rate cuts. The US economy added 303,000 jobs last month, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.
Persons: Stocks, Mike Sanders Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Madison Investments
Direct-to-consumer brands – household names like HelloFresh, Peloton, Allbirds, Stitch Fix, Warby Parker and Rent the Runway, which cut out traditional retailers, wholesalers and other middlemen – have been falling. Investors shied away from high-growth stocks and retreated into companies with solid fundamentals and, most importantly, lots of profit. The problem is that none of these direct-to-consumer (DTC) companies have managed to make the transition to profitability themselves. Rent the Runway was down $114 million, and mattress company Purple lost about $121 million. Other companies, like SmileDirectClub, which went public in 2019, and Winc, a wine subscription company that went public in 2021, have declared bankruptcy.
Persons: Allbirds, Warby Parker, don’t, they’ll, , Ben Cogan, they’ve, Cogan, Casper, , it’s, Sesame, Michael Botta, Tesla, Chris Isidore, Elon Organizations: New, New York CNN, Agora, CNN, Hubble, Venture, , Companies, Wonder Group, Durational Capital Management, Costco, Western, Tesla Locations: New York
The warehouse retailer is now offering its US members access to prescriptions for GLP-1 weight loss drugs through its low-cost health care partner Sesame. Costco first partnered with Sesame, a direct-to-consumer health care marketplace that connects medical providers nationwide with consumers, last fall when it began offering its members online health checkups for as low as $29. “The number one search term of Costco members seeking primary care on Sesame was around weight loss,” Goldhill said in an interview with USA Today. JPMorgan researchers estimate that 30 million people may be taking GLP-1 drugs by 2030, or around 9% of the US population. It also made a $100 million-plus deal to buy Sequence, a telehealth business that can offer virtual prescriptions, where appropriate, to patients for these weight loss drugs.
Persons: Sesame, David Goldhill, ” Goldhill, WeightWatchers Organizations: New, New York CNN, Costco, USA, CNN, JPMorgan Locations: New York
“However, I am fully aware that I’m creating another problem for myself down the road.”For now, his retirement plans sit on the back burner. Retirement savings in the United States were long thought of as a three-legged stool. Americans had pension plans, Social Security benefits, and defined contribution plans like the 401(k). Social Security payments still provide about 90% of income for more than a quarter of older adults, according to Social Security Agency surveys. She’s had to rely on her 401(k) retirement savings to support her and her son more than once.
Persons: Eric Payne, there’s, , Payne, I’ve, he’ll, What’s, Larry Fink, , , ” Fink, Fink, Jamie, She’s, – Jamie, wasn’t, Donald Trump, ” Trump, Joe Biden, Karoline Leavitt, Trump, Biden, Bernie Sanders, Sanders, BlackRock’s Fink, Beth, ” Beth Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Social Security, Social, Social Security Agency, Security, Lawmakers, BlackRock, CNBC, Vermont Independent, Medicare Locations: New York, Portland , Maine, United States, Central Texas, Pittsburgh
It’s jobs week. Here’s what to watch for
  + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN —Welcome to jobs week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that a weakening labor market would be a reason to reduce interest rates. It’s hard to imagine that this jobs report will substantially move the needle on Fed policy, said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence survey found that “Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was more positive in March” than in previous months. The week ahead: While the main event this week is Friday’s jobs report, there’s plenty of other jobs data this week for traders to grab on to.
Persons: Jerome Powell, I’ll, nonfarm, , Dave Sekera, , , we’re, Goldman Sachs, Michael Brown, Powell, Brown, It’s, Donald Trump, Matt Egan, Trump, That’s, Natasha Chen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Labor, Stanford, Social, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media Locations: New York, , California
Bruch is one of the largest individual FTX creditors and has been tapped by the US Department of Justice to serve as one of nine on the FTX Creditors’ Committee, where he is working to recoup the funds lost by customers. DOJ-appointed creditor committees ordinarily consist of people and companies who hold the seven largest unsecured claims against the debtor (in this case, FTX), according to the agency. Before the Bell spoke with Bruch about Sam Bankman-Fried, FTX, MyPrize and the future of crypto. I feel for all of the creditors and am doing everything I can to help recoup what was taken from us. I’ve worked at some of the largest crypto trading desks in the world and then also started trading my own book of capital and grew to become one of the largest individual crypto traders.
Persons: Sam Bankman, Fried, Zach Bruch, Bruch, MyPrize, Bell, Sam Bankman Fried, , , Sam Bankman Fried’s, Bitcoin, I’ve, Elisabeth Buchwald, Jerome Powell wasn’t, ” Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Evan Gershkovich, Evan Gershkovich’s, Radina Gigova, Anna Chernova, Antonina Favorskaya, Alexey Navalny, Favorskaya, Gershkovich Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, US Department of Justice, , DOJ, Arrington Capital, Department of Justice, Federal, Commerce Department, San Francisco Fed, ” Fed, CNN, Wall Street Locations: New York, Russia, Yekaterinburg
New York CNN —The massive cargo ship crash that destroyed the Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge on Tuesday will probably cost various shipping companies and insurers billions of dollars in damages. “Maritime law is steeped in antiquity. Maritime law is rooted in the need to settle disputes and enforce rules between different peoples, even before there was the concept of countries with definitive laws. That rule, known as general average, is still a guiding principle of maritime law. “it’s just a fundamental part of the way that the shipping business works,” said Martin Davies, director of the Maritime Law Center at Tulane University.
Persons: Francis Scott Key, ” Sean Pribyl, “ It’s, , Rhodes, Rhodians, Pribyl, “ it’s, Martin Davies, ” Davies, Dali, “ don’t, Davies, Chugging, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Holland, CNN, American Bar, Titanic, Star Line, White Star, Maritime Law Center, Tulane University, Grace Ocean, , Repair Company, Flint & Co, Supreme Locations: New York, Brooklyn, Baltimore, American, Great Britain, Southampton, Singapore, . Flint
The S&P 500 was up 0.1% on Thursday, reaching a new record high. The Dow gained 47 points, or 0.1% also hitting a new high. Thursday was the final day of trading for March and the first quarter of 2024, wrapping up an outstanding quarter for US stocks. For the quarter, the S&P 500 is about 10.2% higher, its strongest first quarter since 2019. Tech stocks like Nvidia and the AI-craze have helped drive stocks higher in the first quarter.
Persons: Dow Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
Are you struggling to save for retirement?
  + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: 1 min
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New York CNN —The “Buffett Indicator” is flashing red. If the stock market is growing a lot faster than the economy, that could be a sign of a bubble. Yes, but: The so-called Buffett Indicator is not without flaw. By the closing bell, Trump Media ended at $57.99, up by a more modest 16% on the day. He said Trump Media is likely worth somewhere around $2 a share — nowhere near its closing stock price of $58.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Fortune Magazine “, Berkshire Hathaway, John Hussman, Hussman, Larry Summers, , , Louis Navellier, Goldman Sachs, Navellier, doesn’t, Buffett, they’re, Jamie Dimon, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab, Elisabeth Buchwald, Donald Trump’s, CNN’s Matt Egan, Jay Ritter, Ritter Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fortune Magazine, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Navellier, Associates, , JPMorgan, CNBC, CNN, Visa, Mastercard, Court, Eastern, of, National Retail Federation, Trading, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, University of Florida’s Warrington College of Business, GameStop, AMC Locations: New York, of New York
About 90%, or $1.1 trillion, of that profit went to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividend payments, according to new research from anti-poverty organization Oxfam International. At the same time, the study found, only 10 of those 200 companies have made public statements in support of paying a living wage. For some of those companies, the average CEO-to-worker pay ratio is now above 1,500 to 1, the nonprofit confederation found. Oxfam’s study found that on average, pharmaceutical companies paid just 11.6% in taxes in 2022 (that’s down from 11.8% in 2021). Trump Media generated just $3.4 million of revenue through the first nine months of last year, according to SEC filings.
Persons: , we’ll, , Irit Tamir, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, Dave Calhoun, Chris Isidore, Calhoun, Max Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, CME, Oxfam International, Oxfam, Corporations, Institute for Policy Studies, Tax, Truth Social, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Corp, Digital, Trump, Nasdaq, Big Tech, , overvaluing Trump Media, SEC, Twitter, CNN, Boeing, CNBC, Alaska Airlines, Max Locations: New York, United States
[About 70% of investors now think a rate cut will occur in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool.] Goldman Sachs is currently predicting a 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, down from 35% last year. Seeing that happen made us more confident that the Fed wouldn’t be forced to cause a recession in order to get inflation down. The reason we say 15% risk is because that is roughly the historical unconditional average. So a 15% recession rate is baseline for you, it will never go below that number?
Persons: Dow, Bell, David Mericle, Goldman Sachs, It’s, it’s, we’ve, I’m, Samantha Delouya, authority’s, ” United, Joe Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Goldman Sachs ’, Bell, National Bureau of Economic, FAA, United, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, United Boeing, , Federal Communications Commission, Program, Lawmakers, ACP, FCC Locations: New York, We’re, Medford , Oregon
The S&P 500 has surged more than 10% since January, and last week it surpassed Goldman Sachs’ year-end target of 5,200. The question is weighing heavily on the minds of investors, Goldman Sachs’ strategists wrote in a note Friday. The current rally in growth stocks is different from what happened when markets crashed in 2021 or during the tech bubble, the analysts wrote. Either of these shifts higher, analysts wrote, are dependent on the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. But for now, Goldman analysts will keep their baseline prediction of 5,200 for the S&P 500 unchanged.
Persons: New York CNN — It’s, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, , Goldman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Locations: New York
“Due to recent safety events, the FAA is increasing oversight of United Airlines to ensure that it is complying with safety regulations; identifying hazards and mitigating risk; and effectively managing safety,” an FAA spokesperson said in a statement. The civil aviation authority’s stepped up oversight comes after a United Boeing 737-800 landed in Medford, Oregon, missing an external panel on March 15. In just the last month, another United Boeing plane spewed flames from an engine after taking off, one slid off the runway, one lost a wheel during takeoff and another trailed hydraulic fluid. The FAA did not specify what future projects may be delayed by its evaluation, but on Saturday, Bloomberg reported the agency is considering preventing United Airlines from adding new routes, curbing the airline’s growth. Last week, a LATAM Airlines Boeing plane flying from Sydney, Australia, to Auckland, New Zealand, suddenly plunged in midair, injuring some passengers as they were thrown to the cabin’s ceiling.
Persons: authority’s, ” United, , CNN’s Gregory Wallace, Chris Isidore, Pete Muntean Organizations: CNN, Federal Aviation Administration, United Airlines, FAA, United Boeing, Boeing, Bloomberg, United, , Alaska Airlines Boeing, Max, LATAM Airlines Boeing Locations: Medford , Oregon, United, Sydney, Australia, Auckland , New Zealand
Zillow reported that it outperformed the residential real estate industry by 12 percentage points in 2023. That’s because one of the main ways Zillow makes money is through lead generation for real estate agents. “This shift in the structure of real estate transaction costs is too new to understand how it will impact housing market dynamics,” a spokesperson said. Zillow could make even more money if real estate agents offer their services piecemeal, he said. The takeawayThere’s a lot of disagreement between analysts about the future of Zillow and the real estate industry at large.
Persons: Zillow, , Dan Kurnos, it’s, Zillow’s, they’ll, who’s, Kurnos, ” Stephen Brobeck, , It’s, Homes.com, William Blair Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, National Association of Realtors, Realtors, Benchmark Company, NAR, Zillow, Consumer Federation of America, CNN, Bank of America Locations: New York
Irish companies have to think about being in an Irish domestic market which is frankly, really small, or just going global straightaway. The US is particularly strong for Irish companies; the US economy has held up well. I think Irish companies are very adept at pivoting into what other other countries need and being part of the story. It seems like Irish companies are increasingly becoming job creators in the US. Glanbia Foods, an Irish company that manufactures American-style cheese, now produces one in four slices of cheese consumed in the US.
Persons: Bell, Leo Clancy, Joe Biden, we’ve, it’s, that’s, That’s, We’re, It’s, We’ve, Tesla, Elon Musk’s Tesla, Wells, Colin Langan, ” Langan, Elisabeth Buchwald Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Union and International Monetary Fund, Enterprise Ireland, Patrick’s, Entrepreneurship, Federal Reserve, Companies, UBS, Tesla, NAR, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Ireland, United States, Jefferson , Wisconsin, America, Irish, Europe, Washington, We’re, automaking, Wells Fargo
The company has been plagued by safety issues and recalls, slowing growth and has even been forced to slash prices. But even with the recent drop in price, Tesla’s stock is still very expensive when compared to its actual earnings and profits, said Langan. The company’s former propensity for rapid growth is no longer certain, he said, and shares likely have further to fall. Wells Fargo has lowered its price target for the stock from $200 to $125, predicting another 25% decrease in value. UBS, meanwhile, has lowered its price target to a more moderate $165 from $225.
Persons: New York CNN — Elon Musk’s Tesla, Wells, Colin Langan, Tesla, ” Langan, Langan, Wells Fargo Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wednesday, UBS, Tesla, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: New York, automaking, Wells Fargo
New York CNN —Dealmaking is the lifeblood of Wall Street. But analysts say that funding cuts in the plan could end up harming mergers and acquisitions on Wall Street, squashing hopes of a recovery in dealmaking. The bad news: Recent regulations and proposed budget cuts threaten to step on those green shoots before they’re able to flower. Why it matters: Dealmaking isn’t just good for Wall Street. Shares of the stock are down nearly 30% so far this year after its seemingly nonstop streak of bad luck.
Persons: New York CNN — Dealmaking, Joe Biden, squashing, It’s, Goldman Sachs, , Lucille Jones, Jones, Mitch Berlin, Biden, , ” Berlin, That’s, Hewlett Packard, , TikTok —, Brian Fung, TikTok, Shou Chew, Nadya Okamoto, Okamoto, Teddy Siegel, Siegel, David Goldman, LATAM, it’s, Max Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, LSEG, Federal Reserve, Federal Trade Commission, Department of Justice, Congressional, Office, CNN, Discover Financial Services, Hewlett, Juniper Networks, Target, Boeing, Alaska Airlines, United Airlines, The National Transportation Safety, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, NTSB Locations: New York, dealmaking, EY, Berlin, , LSEG, Australia, New Zealand, Newark
In short, the rent is too damn high — and it’s keeping inflation and interest rates elevated alongside it. We’ll see if they’re right on Tuesday morning when February’s CPI data is due out. “Shelter inflation has been a big focal point for the market,” they wrote in a note on Monday. “We remain confident that [rent prices] will flatline in 2024, rather than fall,” Capital Economics analyst Thomas Ryan wrote in a recent note. That means a current deceleration in rent prices won’t be fully factored into inflation data until February 2025.
Persons: Greg McBride, , Jerome Powell, “ It’s, Powell, aren’t, , Thomas Ryan, Ritti Singh, Singh, won’t, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, Clare Duffy, Reddit, it’s, That’s, Matt Egan, Joe Biden, Bespoke’s Paul Hickey, ” Hickey Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, CPI, Bank of America, ” Capital, Housing Justice, Fed, Dallas Fed, AAA, Federal, Investment Locations: New York
Fears about the health of the real estate market, and a confusing economic landscape, leave commercial banks questioning what comes next. The commercial real estate market is definitely under some pressure because of the rising rate environment. So I think banks are watching all that closely and working closely with regulators. How long do you think commercial real estate woes will weigh on banks? It definitely persists, and it depends on the banks’ weighting of real estate as a percentage of their portfolio.
Persons: New York CNN — It’s, Bell, Chris Giamo, we’ll, They’re, It’s, That’s, Philip Wang, , Xavier Becerra, Julie Su, Eva Rothenberg Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, TD Bank, Sunday, Healthcare, UnitedHealth, CNN, Human Services, Labor Locations: New York, Silicon, United States, Canada
The construction industry added an estimated 23,000 jobs in February; however, the pandemic effects still loom large for businesses such as DreamOn Group, a San Antonio, Texas-based developer, general contractor and property management firm. When Julissa Carielo started the company 18 years ago as Texas Premier Building Contractor Inc., she did so with $75,000 pulled from her 401(k) and two employees. “The Baby Boomers retired; we had way too many retirement parties going on and not enough new folks coming in,” she said. Every week, we’re looking for workers, and we cannot find them.”DreamOn Group is one of many businesses affected by worker shortages in the skilled trades. DreamOn Group previously had an in-house crew to tackle projects such as demolition, concrete work, interior finishes, drywall and painting.
Persons: Julissa Carielo, , Read Organizations: DreamOn, Inc, Boomers Locations: San Antonio , Texas, Texas
Samuel Corum/Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to testify Wednesday for the first of two three-hour-plus grillings by Congress on the state of the economy. But is there a particular law or rule that compels him to spend six hours answering lawmakers' (often aggressive) questions, a task that some may consider arduous? Officially known as the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978, the Humphrey-Hawkins act was first proposed by Sen. Hubert Humphrey and Rep. Augustus Hawkins. The act also requires that the Fed head report on and deliver a monetary report to Congress semiannually. While it's not clear how much he enjoys delivering six hours of testimony, he did say earlier this year that his idea of fun was "a really great inflation report."
Persons: Samuel Corum, Jerome Powell, Humphrey, Hawkins, Sen, Hubert Humphrey, Augustus Hawkins, Powell, it's Organizations: U.S, Capitol, Getty, Federal Reserve, Rep, Fed Locations: Washington , DC
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has a chance to provide more insight when he testifies before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday. Those reports pushed back market bets on when the Fed will start cutting interest rates. Investors will closely listen for any hints from Powell about what the Fed is looking for, data-wise, before it begins to lower interest rates. Powell will also be asked about the economic pain Americans are feeling as a result of elevated inflation and interest rates. When interest rates fall, holding income-paying assets (like bonds) becomes less appealing than owning the precious metal.
Persons: Jerome Powell, there’s, , Powell, , Emanuel Cleaver, Dave Sekera, Claudia Sahm, ” Powell, Krystal Hur, Samantha Murphy Kelly, , ” Mengmeng Zhang Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, Investors, Missouri Democrat, Politico, Morningstar, Morningstar . New York Community Bank, Fitch, Moody’s Investors Service, Federal Reserve, Costco, Apple, Counterpoint Research, Huawei, Counterpoint Locations: New York, Missouri, Morningstar ., China
Welcome to “Super Tuesday.” Today, a whopping 16 states and territories hold primary elections. But stock market analysts say not to fret and to hold tight. Based on annualized returns for the S&P 500, stocks gained an average 13.75% during Trump’s presidency. Election year math: History shows that stocks typically gain during the fourth year of presidential terms. The S&P 500 has gained 6.2% on average during the fourth year of presidential terms since 1932, according to Yardeni Research.
Persons: , Edward Jones, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Angelo Kourkafas, ” Kourkafas, Raymond James, Trump, Obama, , Simon Hamilton, Barack Obama, “ That’s, it’s, Hamilton, Goldman Sachs, Allison Morrow, Bitcoin, , Simone McCarthy, Premier Li Qiang, Hong Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, , Markets, White House, Congress, CNN, Republicans, Republican, , Research, Dow Jones, University of Cincinnati, University of Missouri, Securities and Exchange, Bloomberg, Premier, National People’s Congress Locations: New York, Washington, Hamilton, United States, China, Beijing
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